Here’s what SAM President and CEO Kevin Sabet is thinking about regarding marijuana and election day

With nearly all of the pro-marijuana money coming from out of state, Alaskans seem wary of legalization and commercialization according to the latest polls. Public Policy Polling data released in early August showed of 673 voters polled, 44 percent were in favor of the initiative, 49 percent opposed it and 8 percent were unsure. A more recent poll found that 53 percent of likely voters opposed the measure and 43 percent supported it after hearing it described with wording largely lifted directly from the opening lines of the actual ballot measure. Time will tell. An opinion editor from theAlaska Dispatch just opined “four reasons Alaskans should vote no on marijuana legalization.” There is an admirable, home-grown Alaskan opposition group, “Big Marijuana. Big Mistake” which seems to keep gaining momentum. The powerful group Alaska Federation of Natives endorsed a no vote last weekend. Lisa Murkowski and Mark Begich have urged a no vote. Governor Sean Parnell and his challenger Bill Walker are voting no. And the Alaska State Chamber of Commerce is urging its members to vote no. The Alaska Oil and Gas Association are also urging a no vote.

Despite polls looking favorable for legalization, a diverse coalition of community organizers, African-American churches, education leaders, and Advisory Neighborhood Commission Members have come out against legalization. Today, campaign coordinator Will Jones debated the Drug Policy Alliance on DC TV. And yesterday, they unveiled twenty Washington DC Metrobus ads.

Medical marijuana advocates have had their eye on Florida for years – if they could breakthrough the South with an extremely open-ended de facto legalization law under the guise of medicine, they would have the opening they needed to bring legalization by name in just a few more years. But they ran into some unexpected, stiff competition from a disciplined, relatively well-funded opposition. Again, anything can happen in the next seven days, but with behavior like this from the amendment’s primary funder and proponent (trial lawyer John Morgan), things aren’t looking good for the pro side.

And then there is Oregon. Oregon has been on the radar of legalization advocates for years. A fairly liberal state on the west coast with the most liberal decriminalization law would seem ripe for full legalization. No wonder billionaires from Drug Policy Action (the 501-c-4, lobbying arm of George Soros’ Drug Policy Alliance) and the Marijuana Policy Project have poured millions into the state. Despite these efforts though, and only about $180,000 raised by opponents (all of that money is from Oregonians), it is certainly not turning out to be a slam dunk. Oregon rejected legalization in 2012 (the same year WA and CO passed it), and save for the original medical marijuana law passed there almost 15 years ago, every single other major state measure to open up marijuana laws has failed. The legalization advocates have run a sloppy campaign, very different from their Washington counterparts just two years ago.PolitiFact cited the cornerstone of their campaign to be “false” and despite securing the endorsement of The Oregonian, several other smaller but very important papers have come out against the initiative. Despite such a heavy spending and ad advantage by the legalization advocates, this one is going down to the wire. A poll out this morning by The Oregonian finds 46% of voters are opposed to the initiative, and 44% favor it. 

You can bet that when both candidates for governor, running in a very tight race,distance themselves from marijuana legalization (the incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper called it “reckless” though later changed it to “risky” through a spokesperson; the other called for outright repeal), something isn’t right. Indeed, support for legalization has slipped dramatically since 2012 according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll. And just last week the Department of Public Health and Environment had recommended banning marijuana food products. Things are clearly not going well there, so it is no wonder that localities have decided to fight back. Several local questions will gauge voters’ continued (dis)interest in legalization.